Who will be Left to Teach? Pink Slips + Retirements = Empty Classrooms

When March 15 rolls around each year, districts, schools and teachers are sent into a frenzy of planning, anticipating, and dreading the annual distribution of pink slips. This year, 26,000 pink slips were issued — last year there were 26,500 pink slips issued by the March deadline. Given the magnitude of budget cuts and resulting teacher layoffs, it comes as no surprise that there has been a steep decline in the number of individuals preparing to become teachers. In 2001-02 there were well over 77,000 enrollees in preparation programs, but by 2006-07 that number had dropped by more than 25,000 candidates. Of course these numbers translate to fewer first- and second-year teachers in our schools. In just one year, 2007-08 to 2008-09, nearly 6,500 fewer novice teachers remain on the job.

Market forces? Maybe, but let’s consider what lies ahead for California schools and why the downstream effect of current budget decisions matter. Although we might have expected the baby boom retirement wave to slow due to economic uncertainties, so far our teachers are right on track to retire at the average age of 61. This means over the next seven to ten years we will have to replace nearly 100,000 teachers — or about one-third of the workforce — due to retirement alone. But there’s more: after years of flat or declining enrollment at the elementary level, schools across the state can expect to see 170,000 new elementary students come through their doors in the next five years.

continue…. http://www.cftl.org/centerviews/may10.html