Pool of teachers being depleted

Experts say layoffs could dissuade potential educators

Even with thousands of teachers statewide facing layoffs, recruitment experts are warning of an impending teacher shortage.

The numbers of teaching credentials issued and students majoring in education are in sharp decline. Experts warn that news of layoffs could exacerbate the trend by driving would-be educators into fields with better prospects.

If the pipeline of future educators slows too much, it may not refill the teaching pool quickly enough to keep pace with attrition.

“I really do see – two, three years out, depending on the economy – I do see a critical shortage,” said Chris Reising, who's in charge of teacher recruitment for the San Diego County Office of Education. “The front end of the pipeline is not being loaded because of the public perception that there are no jobs out there, that they're laying off teachers and not hiring them.”

More than 1,400 local educators received tentative layoff notices in March. Hundreds of those notices were rescinded in the following two months, but last week, local school boards followed through on hundreds of teacher firings.

“With all the layoff notices issued, at least for now teaching doesn't seem a good bet with regard to immediate employment after graduation,” said Margaret Gaston, executive director of the Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning in Santa Cruz. In the long run, though, “We're going to need these people.”

Teachers can still get their jobs back in coming months if school budgets improve. Even if they do, the damage may already have been done, Gaston said: Students who might have been eyeing a career in teaching could be thinking twice about making such a move.

Thousands of teachers statewide received tentative layoff notices during the budget crisis of 2003. In the following four years, the annual number of new teaching credentials issued by the state plunged by nearly 30 percent, from 27,150 in 2003-04 to 19,084 last school year.

“It doesn't appear that the state has really recovered from the last round of pink slips (in 2003), and we expect those numbers to be exacerbated by this latest round of pink slips,” Gaston said.

San Diego State University is one of California's larger teacher factories. At SDSU, liberal-studies majors – the most common major for future teachers, especially elementary teachers – have declined from 1,899 in 2002 to 971 last year.

The number of liberal-studies majors at Point Loma Nazarene University has dropped sharply, too, said Scott Shoemaker, associate vice president for enrollment.

The overall decline of education majors at universities coincides with analysts' forecasts of a wave of retirements from the state and national teaching corps. more...