By Dennis W. Redovich
Columnist EducationNews.org

This is the first of a series of Center reports that will be prepared from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) U. S. Employment Projections 2006-2016 published in the Monthly Labor Review November 2007. The ten-year projections of United States employment are prepared every two years and are conveniently ignored by the popular media and the supporters and critics of public education in the United States. Without any valid evidence the critics of American public education continue to claim there is a crisis in math and science education and that there is a serious shortage of college graduates because of the poor preparation all students receive for post-secondary education in American K-12 public schools. This is a hoax.

As shown in Table I, 80 job titles related to math and/or science employment are projected to employ
7,981,000 in the United States in 2016, an increase of 1,207,000 from 6,774,000 employments in 2006. The 7,981,000 employment represents 4.8% of total United States employment projected for 2016 of 166,220,000. The 2006 math and/or science employment of 6,774,000, is 4.5% of 2006 total U.S. employment of 150,620,000 workers.A majority of workers in math and or science occupations are projected to be employed in Computer Occupations (50.2% in 2016). Many of there workers have not earned 4-yr college degrees. This is also true of math and science technicians.

Table I Math & Science Employment in the United States 2006-2016

Occupational Areas

U.S. 2006

U.S. 2016

% in

Change

%

Number/

Math & Science

Employment

Employment

2016

2006-2016

Job Titles

Architecture Occupations

232,000

277,000

3.5

45,000

19.4

4

Engineers

1,512,000

1,671,000

20.9

159,000

10.5

18

Engineering Technicians

840,000

904,000

11.3

64,000

7.6

12

Physical Scientists

267,000

309,000

3.9

42,000

15.7

8

Life Scientists

258,000

292,000

3.6

33,000

12.8

12

Phy. & Life Technicians

351,000

393,000

4.9

42,000

11.8

10

Computer Occupations

3,200,000

4,006,000

50.2

807,000

25.2

10

Math Scientists & Tech.

114,000

129,000

1.6

15,000

13.3

6

Total

6,774,000

7,981,000

100

1,207,000

17.8

80

Total U.S. Employment

150,620,000

166,220,000

100

15,600,000

10.4

790*

% Math & Science of Total U.S. Employment

4.5%

4.8%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational employment projections to 2016, Monthly Labor Review, November 2007. *Estimated number of job titles for total U.S. Employment 2006-2016

The United States is the leader of the world in scientific research in respect to published accomplishments, Nobel Prizes, volume of research and expenditures on scientific research. The United States is the leader of the world in technology and the leader of the world in the global economy. One of the major reasons the United States is a world leader is its educational systems, including K-12 public education, post-secondary colleges and universities that produce a highly educated, productive and successful workforce.(Example See www.jobseducationwis.org

288 Nobel Prizes in Science 2007

The majority of the jobs of the future in Wisconsin and the United States are low or average paying jobs that require short term or moderate-term on the job training and do not require high-level academic skills in any academic areas, particularly in higher mathematics.

American corporations justify their outsourcing of jobs by bashing American education and quoting statistics about the higher percentage of China and India's college graduates with engineering and science degrees and that there is a shortage of high skilled American high tech workers and college graduates. A January 2006 report from Duke University, published in Education Week,"U.S. Asian Engineering Gap Overstated" says, "It is clear that the U.S is not in the desperate state that is routinely portrayed." Almost one third of the world's science and engineering graduates are employed in the U.S."

As shown in Table II, the majority of jobs in 2016 require short term on the job training or experience or moderate length on the job training, experience or education.Technology makes jobs simpler not more difficult and makes workers more productive. The great majority of the jobs of the future are the same jobs of the 20th Century with new technological tools making these jobs easier to do. A majority of jobs require only short or moderate length training or experience. The jobs of the future in the United States in 2016 are essentially the same jobs in existence in 2006. There is no crisis in math science education in the United States.

Table II Employment by Education. Training or Experience 2006-2016

Education, Training or

Employment

% Distribution

Changes 2006-2016

2006 May

Experience Required

2006

2016

2006

2016

Number

Percent

Annual

Mediam Sal.

Total All Occupations

150,620,000

166,220,000

100.0%

100.0%

15,600,000

10.4%

$30,400

On the Job Training

Short Term OJT

52,339,000

56,951,000

34.7%

34.3%

4,613,000

8.8%

11 *$19,620

Moderate Term OJT

27,230,000

29,248,000

18.1%

17.6%

2,018,000

7.4%

10 *$29,100

Long Term OJT

11,489,000

12,200,000

7.6%

7.3%

711,000

6.2%

8*$37,360

Sub Total

91,058,000

98,399,000

60.4%

59.2%

7,342,000

8.1%

Work Experience in a

14,579,000

15,889,000

9.7%

9.6%

1,310,000

9.0%

7 *$43,480

Related field

Post-Secondary Voc

7,901,000

8,973,000

5.2%

5.4%

1,072,000

13.6%

9*$29,520

Associate Degree

5,812,000

6,899,000

3.9%

4.2%

1,087,000

18.7%

6 *$50,240

Sub Total

13,713,000

15,872,000

9.1%

9.6%

2,159,000

15.7%

Bachelor's or more

Bachelor's

18,585,000

21,659,000

12.3%

13.0%

3,074,000

16.5%

5*53,550

Degree & Experience

6,524,000

7,117,000

4.3%

4.3%

592,000

9.1%

2 * $81,280

Professional Degree

1,970,000

2,247,000

1.3%

1.4%

277,000

14.0%

1*$112,070

Doctoral

2,025,000

2,462,000

1.3%

1.5%

437,000

21.6%

3 *$57,640

Master's

2.167,000

2,575,000

1.4%

1.5%

409,000

18.9%

4*$51,380

Sub Total

29,104,000

36,060,000

20.6%

21.7%

4,789,000

16.5%

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2006-2016, Monthly Labor Review November 2007*Rank order 2006 median salaries

The rank order by percentage of workers employed in jobs by education, training or experience (2006 % 2016 %) is as follows. 1. Short-term OJT (one month or less)(34.7% 34.3%) 2. Moderate-Term OJT(1 to 12 months) (18.1% 17.6%) 3. Bachelor's Degree (12.3% 13.0%) 4. Work Experience in related field(9.7% 9.6%) 5. Long-term OJT (7.6% 7.3%) 6. Postsecondary voc. (5.2% 5.4%) 7. Bachelor's or more & Experience (4.3% 4.3%)8. Associate Degree (3.9% 4.2%) 9. Master's (1.4% 1.5%) 10. Doctoral (1.3% 1.5%)11. Professional Degree (1.3% 1.4%)

Reality is 1. For the majority of the jobs in the world and the U.S., basic reading, writing, arithmetic, and developing a work ethic may be required. 2. Education for education sake is good and is helpful in getting a job and doing it well. However there is a surplus of highly educated workers for jobs that require higher levels of education and training. 3. A majority of jobs in the United States workforce require only short-term or moderate length on the job training or experience. About 21% of jobs might require a bachelor's degree or more. About 32% of workers in 2003 in the U.S. workforce 25 years and over had a Bachelor's degree or more*. 5. About 5% of jobs in the United States in the 2000s might require higher math and or science course work.

*Source: U.S. Census Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2003

Dennis W. Redovich, redovich@execpc.com 414-421-1120
Public Speaker and Educational Consultant
Center for the Study of Jobs & Education in Wisconsin and United States
www.jobseducationwis.org6438

Saturday

July 5th, 2008

Dennis Redovich - Center for the Study of Jobs & Education in Wisconsin/

Columnist EducationNews.org

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